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Sell The Rip… Or Buy Momentum?

Jeff BishopJeff Bishop ·

The stock market is in a tricky place right now… for days it’s been hovering around all-time highs… but it has yet to make its decision.

  1. A breakout and new all-time highs…
  2. A market top leading to a correction (or even worse)

And while you might not feel it… you can cut the tension with a knife.

The next turn the market takes will most likely dictate how we close at the end of the year.

Here’s what we know so far…

  • The fed cut rates but are reluctant to disclose if there are more cuts on the way
  • The trade war isn’t resolved yet
  • Global banks are debasing currencies
  • The recent attack on Saudi oil has heightened geopolitical tensions
  • And you’re going to start hearing more about the 2020 election

Let’s take a look at the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), the most actively traded ETF on the planet and the benchmark that most funds compare their performance to.

SPY is trading right around all-time highs… and we’ve seen it act a bit weird around here before.

Remember, we just came off an important Fed announcement, so even though it’s exhilarating to watch the bulls and bears duke it out… the best thing you can do right now is to plan for different scenarios… otherwise, you could get head faked.

For example, I’m going to be looking to:

  1. Sell far out-of-the-money calls (or call spreads) – Wait until implied volatility (IV) is at a relative high. Then go out 60-90 days to maximize both IV and time decay.(That is what I’ll do if I see a pattern signaling a slight move higher or sideways shuffle.)
  2. Sell at-the-money-calls – Wait until IV is at a relatively high level. Pick time frames anywhere from 14-30 days. Try to wait until you get technical indicator reversals on hourly charts such as the 13/30 period crossover.
  3. Buy put spreads – Wait for IV rank to decline. Pick strikes that are close to the money and at the next area of congestion.
  4. Buy puts – Wait for IV rank to decline. Then use technical indicator reversals on hourly charts such as the 13/30 period crossover.

You see, the markets work like chess… you have to think several moves ahead to have a clear edge to outperform the market.

One thing I’m seeing that’s really interesting is the way Nathan Bear has been trading.

While I like to focus on macro announcements… Nathan’s style tends to look past them — he doesn’t necessarily have to decipher the Fed’s comments.

Navigating the Markets… Nathan Bear Style

If you don’t know how Nathan Bear trades by now… his trading style is actually pretty conservative and focuses on trending stocks that have a specific pattern and could squeeze higher.

For example, here’s a look at one stock he traded recently — Restoration Hardware (RH).

Basically, he noticed RH had a bullish trend… as well as a flag setup. Not only that, there was the 15-minute squeeze.

Just by looking at those three simple things… he was able to pull in profits like these…

Let’s take a look at a position he’s actually in currently… Shake Shack (SHAK).

Here’s a look at exactly how Nathan is able to consistently find money-multiplying trades all the time.

Notice how SHAK has clearly been trending higher…

The next thing that caught Nathan’s attention was the bull flag (consolidation) pattern.

For the most part, when you see this pattern… chances are the stock breaks out and absolutely explodes.

When you look closely, below the price chart, you’ll see one of Nathan’s favorite indicators — the TTM squeeze.

According to Nathan, this is the start of a daily squeeze… and SHAK has a high chance to break above all-time highs.

With the Fed behind us… the market will need a few days to digest all this news… and I think Nathan’s approach is one of the simplest ways to avoid getting sliced up by the market volatility.

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