“Is there any company that doesn’t use ADP out there?” – Jeff

 

Hey there carnivores,

Markets were mixed on Wednesday. 

And today we’re talking about a really scary ADP jobs report.

Keep raging,

Jeff & Jason

Payrolling down the mountain

 

Private businesses that like to pay their employees had a pretty, pretty, bad April. Didn’t we all? Private payrolls fell by 20.2M during the economy’s worst month in recent memory, according to a monthly report by ADP. 

If that sounds bad, it’s because it is. In fact, it’s the worst month since ADP began publishing the report back in 2002.

 

Redlining 

 

As bad as it looks, ADP likely lowballed the numbers as well, since it used the week of April 12 as its sample period. Oh good, so this could be a lot worse than we’re expecting… buckle up.

Big businesses (with more than 500 employees) were hit the worst. Thank god for PPP. Those businesses accounted for roughly 9M job losses whereas companies with less than 50 workers lost only 6M employees. Small Business Saturday is working, you guys! 

The hospitality, trade, construction, and transportation industries cut the most jobs, unsurprisingly, since none of us have left the house to stay in a hotel in the last 2 months. Those service-related industries lost 16M jobs total. 

 

Speaking of transportation…

 

Uber and Lyft both announced massive job cuts recently. Uber said on Wednesday that it would be axing 14% of employees or more than 3.7k worker bees. Last week, Lyft said it was cutting 17% of its workforce, and during its Q1 release yesterday announced that its April ridership fell 75%. And keep in mind these numbers don’t include Uber drivers who are definitely, 100%, totally not full-time employees.

 

The bottom line…

 

Despite the losses… it could be worse. Wait, what? 

While private companies may have seen 20M job losses, it’s not quite as bad as the 22M that analysts expected. Bunch of Buzz Killingtons

We’ll get a clearer picture when the Labor Department drops its April job report on Friday. Buckle up.

 

☑️Need a ride? Peloton sales were at the top of the leaderboard for the company’s fiscal Q3, ended March 31. Sales of the overpriced stationary bike spiked 66% over the quarter as many began to stock up on exercise gear knowing they’d be stuck at home for the foreseeable future. The mind behind the infamous Super Bowl commercial is likely claiming that this was their plan the whole time. 

The Tour de No-Pants bike makers reported a 20 cent loss per share and a revenue of $524.6M. On the news, its shares rose 5%.

 

☑️Better ingredients, better CEO, Papa John’s. According to Papa John’s, April wasn’t so bad for everybody. The discount pizza-maker revealed that April was the best month in the company’s history. CEO Rob Lynch spilled the beans on Wednesday in an interview with CNBC. It’s like when you break up with a significant other (except in this case your SO uses the N-word at meetings and eats 40 pizzas per month) and show off just how good you’re doing without them. 

Papa J’s saw a 27% increase in sales in North America, compared to April of last year. Lynch also said that menu innovations and third-party delivery services helped with the growth. But let’s be real, Rob, no one’s ordering the Papadia. It was coronavirus. Just admit it. 

 

☑️Catching a lifeline. After announcing it might not be able to stay in business on Tuesday, Norwegian Cruise lines got a $2B lifeline that it said will allow the company to remain open through 2020. Convenient… It raised the funds through $400M in new stock and $1.43B via two debt offerings.

Honestly, NCL might not want to be open past 2020 as 2021 is shaping up to be a rough one. The company used roughly $1.4B in credit to stay alive, $675M of which will come due in March 2021. Additionally, the company is offering 125% credits to passengers for canceled cruises, which will lead to further revenue declines through the end of next year.

 

☑️Starfox. Fox reported a 25% increase in revenue during Q3 of 2020 to $3.44B, beating estimates of $3.33B. While it has struggled and highlighted losing some of its advertising partners in the manufacturing and auto industries, tech companies have been there to pick up the slack. 

The company’s sports division hasn’t been as highly impacted by the shutdown either as most of its key programming takes place in the fall. And, with people at home, the FoxNews streaming service Fox Nation has blown TF up, with 80% of subscribers who sign up for free trial converting to full time.

Still, Fox cautioned about what lies ahead as it fears its 29 local TV stations could take a hit. It’s hoping that advertising dollars will pour back in once the election comes around in November.

Author: Jeff Bishop

One of the best traders anywhere, over the past 20 years Jeff’s made multi-millions trading stocks, ETFs, and options. He is renowned as an incredible trader with a deep insight and a sensitive pulse on the markets and the economy. Jeff Bishop is CEO and Co-Founder of RagingBull.com.

Even greater than his prowess as a trader is his skill and passion in teaching others how to trade and rake in profits while managing risk.

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