Finally, after three years of Brexit headlines, the EU and the UK have come to an agreement.
So it’s all over, right? Wrong.
Under the proposed agreement the UK would leave the EU ‘whole and entire’ on October 31st, just as planned. Northern Ireland would remain in the UK customs territory, but all EU rules (read: tariffs) would apply to goods upon arrival. And you thought Apple’s terms and conditions were complicated.
The UK and EU both want to establish a free trade agreement, but that would take place during stage two of the EU-UK talks. I wonder where they got the idea for a multi-part international trade agreement.
The deal is not done yet though, as both the EU and UK governing bodies need to give their respective stamps of approval. EU leaders in Brussels unanimously endorsed the proposed agreement yesterday… buuut it faces an uphill battle in Britain, which has already voted down three previous Brexit deals (we see you Theresa May).
The British Parliament meets on Saturday (da fuq?!) to ratify the deal, where it’s expected that the Labour Party, Liberal Democrats, and Scottish National party will all reject it. PM BoJo would then need the support of his own party and the Democratic Unionist Party of Northern Ireland to get it passed, but the latter opposes it. You can see where this is headed…
The bottom line…
If the agreement is ratified then Britain will enter a transition period of at least 14 months where relations with the EU would remain as they are today, allowing both sides to work toward the trade deal (read: stage two). This agreement makes a no-deal Brexit a lot less likely… but is no guarantee.
The GBP rose to 1.2990 against the dollar on the news but fell after news spread that the Saturday vote will “be the start of a long process.”
Bottom line: “Who ya got? Brexit or US-China trade deal?”