“The markets didn’t get the recession memo, did they?”

– Jason


Markets were way up again on Monday.

And today we’re talking about… you guessed it… the markets.

Keep raging,

Jeff & Jason


What recession?

All major indices were green on Monday. The Nasdaq notched its first record close since February, ending the day up 1.1% at 9,924.74. The Nasdaq 10k stans smell blood in the water.

The S&P has turned positive on the year, up roughly 0.1% YTD. More impressively, not a single S&P 500 stock has a negative return over the previous ten weeks. The highest being Apache Corp with a 293.50% return, and Tiffany edging out a 0.53% gain. Quite the spread.

As for the Dow? It gained 461.46 points during trading, closing at 27,572.44. Still in negative territory for the year and off its high.

So, why the hype?

“Shut up and take my money.” – investors after the May unemployment figures Friday showed a gain of 2.5M jobs for the month

That’s right, investors still haven’t come down from the high following Friday’s big unemployment numbers beat. The positive economic news, coupled with reopenings has been good for business.

Anything else investors are ‘all gassed up’ about? Yup. OPEC reached an agreement on Friday to extend production cuts of 9.6M barrels per day through July.

And on Monday WHO reported that asymptomatic carriers of COVID-19 are very unlikely to transfer coronavirus to others. Sooo you’re telling me July 4th is about to be lit?

The bottom line…

Stonks are way up, so what’s there to worry about?

Well, the National Bureau for Economic Research reported just yesterday that the US dipped into a recession in February. Yeah, no sh*t.

And the “recession” designation isn’t something the NBER takes lightly… not that you’d expect a bunch of government economists to not take their job wayyy too seriously. The Bureau typically waits until a recession is well underway to call a spade a spade. But this was an open and shut case for obvious reasons.

The recession marks the end of a 128-month streak of economic expansion in the US. Those are John Wooden numbers…


☑️ Time to make the donuts. 

While some companies are still cutting back on jobs, Dunkin’ is hiring. See, this is why they are the go-to of everyone who was an extra in “The Departed.” Dunkin’ announced that it is hiring 25k people as the economy begins to open up.

The preferred coffee maker of anyone who refuses to call a medium “grande” is launching its first advertising campaign focused on the benefits of working for the restaurant, besides free coffee. It is partnering with Southern New Hampshire University to offer store employees a college education. Can I just have the cost of tuition in free coffee instead?

This is welcome news after last week’s unemployment rate came in at 13.3%. Dunkin’s same-store sales were down 23% quarter-to-date at open locations but investors have faith as an upgrade from KeyBanc Capital Markets helped the stock rise 4% yesterday.

☑️ Target acquired. 

Roku is launching a new ad-targeting platform that will allow it to track impressions for consumer packaged goods. The streaming-TV software operator is partnering with Kroger’s Precision Marketing Unit which actually tracks the spend of viewers, allowing marketers to, well, market, more effectively. And people are stoked. Roku’s shares shot up 8% today on the news.

☑️ Main squeeze.

 One of the Fed’s lending facilities established over the past few months in response to coronavirus is finally ready to take applicants. The Main Street Lending Program has gone through a bit of a facelift, even before it opened up shop. The changes, according to Jerry Interest Rates, are meant to make the funds available to more businesses.

Loan minimums were dropped from $500k to $250k and terms of repayment were extended from two to five years. And for the big ballers, loans can go as high as $300M. Companies receiving funds must have under 15k employees and do less than $5B in revenue. Something tells me we are going to see Ruth’s Chris’ with their hand out…

☑️ Out of this world. 

Tesla’s stock reached an all-time high yesterday, closing at $949.92. The stock price increase coincides with sales data out of China where Tesla supposedly sold 11,095 Model 3’s in May, after moving less than 4k in April.

Nobody has enjoyed the year of the Rat more than Elon. He had a kid, sent humans into space, and is heading to the f*cking moon with $TSLA.

Some analysts believe the business in China is worth $300 per share on its own. Lon Corleone, FTW.

Author: Jeff Bishop

One of the best traders anywhere, over the past 20 years Jeff’s made multi-millions trading stocks, ETFs, and options. He is renowned as an incredible trader with a deep insight and a sensitive pulse on the markets and the economy. Jeff Bishop is CEO and Co-Founder of RagingBull.com.

Even greater than his prowess as a trader is his skill and passion in teaching others how to trade and rake in profits while managing risk.

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