There’s enough doom and gloom stories to fill your day— from crashing markets to government lockdowns.
Which is why you got lost in the media horrors this week…
And didn’t see a key data point …one that says that may be turning a corner.
Total Alpha traders look beyond the main headlines for the real scoop.
When the time is right, they swing into action!
Sometimes that means a homemade zip line with your dog and daughter!
So let’s jump into this week with the most important piece of news you missed.
For that, we look 4,500 miles to our East.
Governments around the world began locking down their countries after watching the run on Italy’s hospital system. They feared the casualty counts where nearly 10% of cases resulted in death.
Yet, this week marked a turning point in the fight against COVID-19. For the first time, Italy saw daily new cases meaningfully drop for several days in a row.
This is a major step towards reducing the strain on their healthcare system. We’re already seeing Spain take steps towards isolation in the hopes of avoiding a similar fate.
U.S. officials from Federal to local levels have worked in earnest to provide the necessary equipment and care to the areas that need it most. In New York, where the pandemic has hit hardest, of the 52,000 cases reported, only 728 resulted in deaths, or 1.4%.
Economic activity in the U.S. has slowed. However, there is another key number to focus on – $2.1 trillion.
President Trump signed the largest single relief package in history this week, turning the full force of the U.S. economy against the Coronavirus.
Here’s come key highlights:
The markets were looking for Congress to go big or go home. In this case, Congress went big.
Calamity has a strange way of bringing folks together. For now, there’s a large sense of bipartisanship and national pride that I don’t expect to leave us anytime soon.
3.21 million….That’s the number of people who filed for unemployment last week in the largest number ever reported since they started in 1967.
Even during the depths of the Great Recession we never reached 1 million.
Initial Jobless Claims From The Department of Labor
Every Thursday at 8:30 a.m. from here on out, you should be watching the jobs numbers. At some point this should slow down if it hasn’t already. The key datapoint behind this will be continuing claims. That will tell us when folks head back to work.
Plus, this week we get the March jobs report on Friday!
In the meantime, pay attention to the lifecycles of the stocks out there. Not all of them are moving in sync. Each stock goes through distinct phases that has its own unique characteristics.
Find out how to identify and apply them in my upcoming masterclass. Get a front row seat to a first class education.
Expected earnings dates listed in (…)
Stocks I want to bet against…
TLT (none), ZM (Mar 4), COST (Mar 5)
Stocks I want to buy…
MJ (none), UNG (none), XLE (none), WDAY (May 26), TWLO (M ay 3), OLED (May 7), V (Apr 22), IRBT (Apr 28), DPZ (May 20), GOOGL (May 4), CVNA (May 13), CMG (Apr 22), NFLX (April 21), AMZN (Apr 23), UBER (Jun 4), GDX (none), ROKU (May 13), MTCH (May 5), TDOC (May 5), ZS, AYX, RH, WORK, IWM
Monday, March 30th
Tuesday, March 31st
Wednesday, April 1st
Thursday, April 2nd
Friday, April 3rd
Every successful trader has their one go-to strategy.
My favorite setup – the money pattern.
Just the other day I was able to put its full force behind some trades that delivered some humongous profits during the face-melting rally.
Yes, despite all the uncertainty and headline risk we have in stocks.
The money pattern still comes out to play.
Today I’m going to show you how it works, and most importantly, how you can start applying it for bigger and better trading results.
This is a lesson you can’t afford to miss.
Also, as a proud stakeholder with ownership interest, we’d like to offer you the opportunity to check out this wonderful company and get in on their limited run of hand sanitizer to keep you and your family healthy and safe.
Years ago, I found out that I preferred swing trading over day trading. Part of that came from my discovery of the money-pattern.
The money-pattern uses an hourly chart and two moving averages: 13-period simple moving average and the 30-period simple moving average.
What I’m looking for is where the two crossover. However, it can’t just be any old crossover. I want to see the crossover happen after the two haven’t touched in at least a couple of weeks. The longer they’ve been apart, the better.
Here’s an example with the SPY chart.
I highlighted three different areas where the two crossed paths. The first one is right before markets took their faceplant. The second is when they did a little fakeout in early March. The third is the true money-pattern crossover that signaled a direction change in the market.
You’re probably wondering why it didn’t work in the second circle. It did in fact work for a day or so. However, it hadn’t been that long since the averages last touched. Compare that to the last crossover that was over three weeks later.
The money-pattern isn’t some magic formula that I have a patent on. It’s a combination of a slow-moving average and a fast-moving average. There are dozens of combinations that work just as well.
For example, Nathan Bear’s Weekly Money Multiplier uses an 8-period exponential moving average and a 21-period exponential moving average.
All of this rests on a simple premise; the slower average shows the larger trend, while the quicker one indicates recent price action. When they move in different directions, it tends to mean that enough pressure has come in to stop the longer-term trend.
Note: This doesn’t apply in sideways markets.
Earlier I brought up my FireEye (FEYE) trade. I want to show you how I used the money-pattern to create a trade for my Bullseye Trade of the week and Total Alpha.
Let’s take a look at the hourly chart pattern.
In this chart that I sent out, I noted the crossover setup that I saw. Notice how this occurred long before the market actually found its bottom.
That’s what makes this so powerful – the pattern becomes more important than a plunging market!
In order to get into the trade, I waited for the stock to pull back into the moving averages. That’s a common way I’ll get into the trade with stops below the recent consolidation area (which is noted by the blue line on the chart).
Let’s take a look at a few stocks that give the money-pattern crossover and look to be good pickups.
We’ll start by taking a look at the makers of cake snacks, Hostess (TWNK).
I like this play for a few reasons. First, the crossover just occurred, so it hasn’t had a chance to play out. Second, it’s making a nice consolidation pattern here right on top of the 13-period moving average. Lastly, it’s a consumer staple product. With everyone stuck at home, they’re either drinking or eating snacks.
Here’s one I’m watching as a potential bearish play. Check out the chart for Lululemon (LULU).
LULU is about to have a bearish crossover. Although this hasn’t had as much time as I would typically want, the stock has a lot going against it. Retailers are taking it on the chin in this environment plus it’s right up near the 200-period moving average that also acts as resistance.
Add to all of that it closed multiple hours and then the day below both moving averages!
Look for these patterns and study them. See how they work in different market environments and contexts. Make repetition your friend.
One of the best ways to cut the learning curve is to watch a mentor trade through these markets. That’s where Total Alpha comes in.
You can get a live feed of my portfolio streamed right to your desktop along with tons of education and training.
A record-setting 3.28 million Americans applied for unemployment benefits last week.
Even startups aren’t immune to the lockdown…
Many are undoubtedly facing their own set of challenges right now.
However, it’s times like these, that savvy investors are really able to put their money to work for them by backing strong companies they normally wouldn’t have access to… at a DISCOUNTED VALUATION.
Just yesterday, I uncovered a boutique fitness company that I’m confident will return exponentially in the next few years — and I invested $25K in it.
There are money-making opportunities out there… you just have to know where to find the deals and how to evaluate the winners.
New deals are constantly added that are on my radar and should be on yours too.
The startup that I’m adding today is bringing some much-needed innovation to employers in a $700B industry… And they’ve seen 20% month-over-month growth because of it.
Right now, you can get an entire year of my service at the lowest price ever offered, and start investing in that very company I mentioned above (I’m going to catch some heat for dropping the price this low, but I wanted to eliminate all hesitation).
Angel investors don’t become successful through luck. The pros know where to find the deals. But equally important, they know which are worth pulling the trigger on and when to walk away.
The single most important skill every angel investor needs — to be able to evaluate an opportunity.
I’m going to break it down for you — this is everything you need to know to assess angel investing opportunities like an expert.
Your prospective startup will have some information for you to check out. These documents or presentations will give you a run-down of the company’s ideas and goals and try to hook you in.
We’re talking about term sheets and pitch decks.
This is your startup’s first chance to wow you. If they don’t put their best foot forward or something feels wrong at this stage, don’t be afraid to ditch the opportunity right then and there.
Here is what you need to look for in term sheets and pitch decks, and what you need to know.
A term sheet is an outline of all the terms of investment. This document is just an agreement — it isn’t legally binding. Legal documents will be drawn up later and will be based on the terms in the term sheet.
The startup and investor(s) can negotiate the terms of the document. Some of these terms are:
These terms aren’t set in stone. There may still be room for negotiation after the term sheet has been made.
These documents should be professional, and the terms should be reasonable and comparable to their competition. If you’re unsure, try to find out what other similar startups are asking for.
In a different setting, you may attend a pitch deck to decide if a startup is worth investing in. This is an investor presentation — sort of like what you see on Shark Tank.
The startup founders will give a short pitch to show their idea, potential market, and business plan. Along with the pitch, the founders will give you other documents that you should study over to get a good look at the company.
During a pitch deck, watch for the startup’s:
A good investment opportunity should be able to touch on all these points and make a convincing case for their business.
Salesmanship isn’t everything, but a founder that can push the idea and get you excited is a good sign. Finding a strong ‘jockey’ or founder is just one of the many strategies for success I share within Angel Investing Insider.
There are 2 main things to consider when evaluating an investment opportunity. If either of these seems wrong to you — don’t get involved.
When you’re investing in startups, you’re really investing in teams. An incredible idea isn’t all that it takes. A startup’s ideas, business plan, or valuation mean next to nothing compared to the team.
How long have they worked together? Have they had success in the startup world? How have they overcome obstacles so far?
Knowing — or not knowing — your team is the number one factor that can make or break your investment.
To lower your risk, always look for outstanding leadership in the company. Leaders with track-records of bringing startups from inception to profitable liquidation are your best bet. Keep in mind, if a startup has A-list business people at the helm, they will charge a premium on their valuation.
Less experienced teams will run you more of a risk. If you have a great eye for people, you can find a rookie team that will succeed. Look for team leaders that have outstanding knowledge of their business. Try to find their work history — where did they come from and what’s their work ethic like?
Low-experience, high-risk teams can be a benefit to you in terms of a startups valuation at the time of your investment.
Consider the founder’s values and ideas. Is this a project you believe in, care about, and stand behind? If you don’t see eye-to-eye with what the founders are doing and don’t get excited about the idea — don’t hop on board.
I get it — you might have dollar signs for eyes and you don’t care about values right now.
Trust me, you may be sticking with this company for a long time. The pot o’ gold at the end of the rainbow is a long way away. Liquidation probably won’t happen for 4 to 7 years.
Do you really want to spend years following a startup that you don’t even like?
Pick something you believe in and you’ll be happier and more confident in your investment.
The next part of assessing a startup comes down to your needs as an investor. We all have different goals, tolerances, and availability. Make sure yours align with the startup’s roadmap.
Do you want to be active in this thing, carrying the torch? Or do you want to watch from the sidelines? There’s room for both in the angel investing world.
Many companies could use your expertise. If you are buying equity, you are essentially a part of the team. You can take part in decision-making, which can yield great results for everyone.
On the other hand, investors who go through a venture capital firm will not have the same potential of involvement. Or, if you invest through a crowdfunding platform, you can buy equity, but likely won’t be so involved.
The great thing is… you don’t have to be involved! You can literally start investing in hand-picked deals with as little as $100.
Next up — how long are you willing to wait and how will you get out?
Angel investing is a long-term game. Most investments will take years to play out. Some investor’s portfolios have no trouble waiting 10 or more years for a return, whereas others may need results within 5.
When will you be able to sell your equity? When do you need the money? How does this fit into your portfolio? Ask yourself these questions and make sure you’re ready to play the waiting game.
Studying the startup’s plan can help you to map out a timeline that works for you. Assessing the burn rate, or how much money the company spends each month, can give you some clues.
If in the early stages a startup has an incredibly high burn rate, you might not be getting your money back any time soon. And in more uncertain times like we have now, you’ll want to understand a startup’s strategy to keep their burn to a minimum.
Finally, the good stuff — your payday. I’m talking about return on investment (ROI). This topic is covered extensively in my book, Investing Like A Millionaire, which I’ve included inside my angel investing service.
Before going into an investment, you need to know about your return. Know how you will get it, when, and how much. For anyone making multiple angel investments or managing a portfolio of investments, this is essential.
The truth is, most investments just won’t pan out. A good strategy is to do some quick math and see if your potential reward on one startup can cover the cost of multiple investments.
For example, if you make 10 angel investments, make sure that just 1 startup success can cover the expenses of all of them. You aren’t getting an ROI if you profit a little bit on one startup but lost money overall from your other angel investments.
You should keep track of your actual investment amounts and factor in any fees or costs you paid to take part.
Make an intelligent ROI plan that will cover your losses and expenses. You need to do the math — there’s just no getting around it.
That’s it, with everything you just learned, you can start making solid investments and building your wealth.
Find yourself an idea that excites you with a good team behind it. Study the paperwork, hear the pitch, and research until you’re totally convinced.
From there, the only thing to do is make sure the opportunity vibes with you. If you’re comfortable with the terms and everything fits together in your portfolio and with your life — you have found an amazing opportunity.